By Nicasia Picciano, PhD, @NicasiaPi
26 December 2023, dtt-net.com – On Christmas eve, December 24, the Serbian pro-opposition attempted to storm Belgrade City Hall protesting against industrial-scale electoral fraud. 8 police officers were injured and 38 people were arrested as a result of riots in Belgrade. Serbian Prime Minister, Ana Brnabić, thanked Russian intelligence services for sharing the information about impending violent protests with Serbia.
Last Sunday, December 17th, Vučić’s political party (SNS) “won” the parliamentary and municipal elections. The SNS counts on 750.000 members and it is, compared to the population, the biggest political party worldwide. The former minister of information for Slobodan Milošević and the disciple of the war criminal, his foster father Vojislav Šešelj, has joyfully celebrated the results. Yet, there are proofs of manipulation, votes’ buying and fraud. The SNS even logistically organized bus transfers from Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, so as to allow Serbs living there to vote for the elections.
On December 25th, Petar Petkovic, the director for Kosovo in the Serbian government, blamed Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti for supporting the opposition protests in Belgrade. The same day the Russian ambassador to Serbia, Aleksandr Botsan-Kharchenko, claimed that the West is behind the protests against the electoral fraud as an attempt to destabilize Vučić’s government.
Brussels and US responsibility
If the US and the EU won’t pressure Belgrade to re-hold the elections, what most probably won’t occur, Vučić’s SNS, winning the absolute majority, can rule alone in the next five years. And, this scenario will inevitably influence any further “development” with Kosovo. The truth is that Brussels and the US bear a considerable part of responsibility for enabling a decline of democracy in the country. Or in other words, they have been feeding the rise of authoritarian rule in Serbia, by privileging stabilitocracy over democracy. They have been appeasing the autocrat Vučić representing a factor of stability in and for the region. But this alibi cannot, and must not, workanymore.
The recent events in Belgrade have shown that a considerable part of the population is tired of lies, abuse of power and manipulation. It demands for a drastic shift instead. The West should not turn a blind eye on this. The reality, though, is quite different. And, pragmatism will likely win over “righteous” attitudes in the end.
In short, there won’t be most likely a sudden change of policy towards the Balkan despot. Rather, the recent position of US ambassador to Serbia, Christopher R. Hill, makes think of quite the opposite. Hill openly backed the elections’ results instead. There have been, though, single voices, like the one of Germany, claiming that what happened last Sunday is unacceptable from a candidate country.
Vučić and Kosovo
In the meantime, the Serbian government has announced that it will officially recognize Kosovo licence plates. And, this decision will be implemented from 1st January 2024. Is the Serbian government’s recent move, following the pro-opposition demonstration in Belgrade a real intention to change the route and show a clear commitment to a long-lasting dispute, or just another farce among many we have been witnessing in the last years? Is Belgrade really willing to a de-facto recognition of Kosovo? The recent “developments” might be more a calculation or a purely “practical decision” for Serbia’s own interests, than any genuine attempt at redefining its position towards Kosovo. Vučić and his government have been mastering sneaky games with both Washington and Brussels very well. Thus, it is unlikely that they will suddenly shift their views. Certainly, Vučić’s power in the next five years will keep affecting the relations with Pristina. Also, it is not to exclude that the recent demonstrations in Belgrade might escalate the situation in the north further.
Notwithstanding this, what happened on Christmas’s eve in Belgrade is of great significance for Serbia’s recent history. It shows that part of the Serbian society is unhappy with the current state of affairs. Rather, it stormed in the streets of the Serbian capital protesting for democracy and rule of law. The recent events are a strong sign that the West must do a mea culpa and acknowledge itsresponsibility for favouring Vučić’s version of “democracy”.
It is unconceivable that Belgrade, ruled by an autocrat controlling the entire state apparatus and society more than Milošević did in 1990s or Tito earlier, has been allowed to open 22 out of 35 chapters in EU membership negotiations, while Kosovo is not even a candidate.
And, whether the recent demonstrations show disappointment domestically about how things are going on in the country, the opposition in Serbia still does not want to recognize Kosovo. To be accurate one has to admit that the way the situation has been developing in Serbia and its relation with Kosovo is because of a decade of American and European one-sided favouritism. This has turned fatal. Yet, it is likely improbable that a drastic change of route will follow as long as Vučić is in power. What’s more, even when he will be gone, it is highly difficult to sweep over night a Western-nurtured policy of stabilitocracy first. Everything speaks about the survival of an old pattern instead.
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Nicasia Picciano holds a Phd on European Union state-building in Kosovo from the University of Flensburg, Germany. She is the author of the book the European Union State-Building in Kosovo. Challenges and Lessons Learned: An Assessment of EULEX, Dr. Kovač, Hamburg. She has previously worked as a researcher for Kosovo Foundation for Open Society, Prishtina, Group for Legal and Political Studies, Prishtina and Balkans Policy Research Group, Prishtina. Currently, she covers the Western Balkans for Sbunker (Prishtina) and Le Courrier des Balkans (Paris). Her research interests span from peace- and state-building, reconciliation and ethnic conflict, cultural tourism, green energy transition, the Berlin Process and the Connectivity Agenda in Kosovo and the Western Balkans.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of dtt-net.com .
