By Daniel Serwer, @DanielSerwer ,
Washington, 22 July 2024, dtt-net.com / peacefare.net – Friends in the Balkans wonder what the candidacy of Kamala Harris will mean for them. There is precious little direct evidence to go on. But some things are obvious. Biden’s withdrawal was no surprise. Nor was his endorsement of Harris. But her attitude towards the Balkans is anyone’s guess. Here is mine.
Extrapolating
Harris is a strong supporter of Ukraine’s struggle against the Russian invasion. She will want to see Kyiv win and Moscow lose. She won’t settle easily for partition. That attitude will likely transfer to the Balkans. I wouldn’t want to be the one telling a female, Black, and Indian President that people of different ethnicities can’t live together.
Harris is also hawkish on China, like Biden as well as Trump. Kosovo may look like Taiwan (and Ukraine) to her. That would mean it needs to be nurtured and defended from territorial claims by a former sovereign. She is unlikely to be sympathetic to the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities or the autonomy of Republika Srpska. Someone needs to advise her early and often that both are bad ideas.
Still extrapolating
This fall’s campaign and election in the US will be in large part about preserving liberal democracy, that is democracy based on equal individual rights protected by the rule of law. Those who want support from her Administration should be aligning themselves with that objective. Partitionists and ethnic separatists should take heed.
The Biden Administration has adopted a policy of appeasement towards Serbia. There is however no reason why Harris should continue it. President Vucic has oriented Belgrade eastward, aligning himself with China, Russia, and other autocracies, including Azerbaijan and Hungary. Serbian munition supplies to Ukraine are worth something, but they will likely flow for economic reasons even if the political soft soaping is ended.
Appeasement has manifestly failed. It is time for tough love. That’s something Harris’ hard-edged temperament will find amenable.
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Daniel Serwer is a Professor of the Practice of Conflict Management as well as director of the Conflict Management and American Foreign Policy Programs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
This opinion was first published at peacefare.net website.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of dtt-net.com .
