“Kosovo’s business with the USA for LNG, Serbia’s non-extraction of lithium for EU needs, and forward-looking strategies for co-investment with Albania and the USA in Hydrogen, may influence the gradual removal of Western pressure and save Kosovo from establishing a dangerous ‘Association’ beyond its current laws on NGOs.”
By Ekrem Krasniqi, @E_H_Krasniqi
Brussels, 21 June 2026, dtt-net.com – From the beginning of the text I must recall the well-known fact that politics is an instrument in the service of the economy, and politicians are those who use the very same, or should use it, for the economic good of the country and people they represent.
Today’s economy, as in the past, rests on the foundation of energy resources. This time, as never before in the modern history of the economy, energy resources, in this case natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and lithium are at the top of the list of resources that modern economies need most, in the complex period of the so-called ‘energy transition’, towards a targeted economy based on clean energy sources (renewables focused), such as wind, solar, and in the near future Hydrogen (the green one, and in the not-so-distant future also Natural Hydrogen).
Connection between American LNG, Serbia’s Lithium, and the dangerous ‘Association’ for Kosovo?!
Namely, how likely are the acquisition of American LNG from Kosovo, as once proposed by Joe Biden’s government, and as Washington is still proposing currently by Donald Trump’s government, to help Kosovo escape the ‘Association’ that began in 2013 and continued in 2023, which would be the biggest blow to Kosovo state functionality and its normality since so far.
Where is the connection between Serbia’s Lithium, which represents up to 26% of the annual needs for next 40 years for the European Union’s automotive industry, and saving Kosovo from the ‘Association’ of Serb-majority municipalities (ASM) ?
How likely are the non-extraction of Serbia’s Lithium in the municipality of Loznica, to influence the establishment of the ‘Association’, or any association that exceeds the Kosovo law on associations, namely non-governmental organizations (NGOs)?
American LNG
Getting American LNG would partially or completely remove the pressure of the American administrations on Kosovo to form the ‘Association’, which is nothing more than a ‘Dayton’ coloured and camouflaged to the detriment of Kosovo.
The Joe Biden administration, with the pressures on the former and current Kosovo governments for the ‘Association’, was put to the aid of the EU to help the EU fulfil a condition for Serbia in relation to Kosovo, namely in exchange for the extraction, still pending, of Serbia’s lithium.
‘Follow the money 1’
If the EU and the USA officials themselves believed in this ‘Association’, the same would be demanded of Serbia for the Presevo Valley, or Sandzak region or the Albanians in North Macedonia. But no, the reasons are related to the large reserves of lithium that Serbia has in Loznica, and have nothing to do with the rights of Serbs that Belgrade claims and western powers endorsed.
The extraordinary pressure that the EU (Germany, France and Italy in particular), together with the Biden administration, have done to the previous governments of Kosovo, results in the 2013 agreement. It continued and resulted in the updated one deal of 2015 (most of its content found unconstitutional by Kosovo constitutional Court), and continued and caused the 2023 agreement (all updated in single one) agreed by the current government in Prishtina
Currently, the government of Kosovo is still under pressure from the EU to establish the dangerous ‘association’ for Kosovo, but not from the Trump government, because the current Washington does not have good relations with the EU, on many fronts.
But, this accidental relief for Kosovo will last another two and a half years.
Then, in all likelihood, the Democrats will come to power in the USA again, and the USA-EU duo will once again start the joint engines for additional pressure on Kosovo to establish the ‘association’ requested by Serbia.
What should Kosovo do now until the 2028 USA elections?
Kosovo needs to find common ground with the current government on the LNG offer.
The USA offer during the Biden administration was for a 250 MWh gas-fired power plant in Kosovo.
In November 2021, I wrote about “Kosovo’s 4 options for American gas”, about the version at that time for 250 MWh production capacity.
It is not yet known whether the current request/offer from Washington is again for 250 MWh or more.
The Kosovo government should end the rejections and expand the negotiations for a 250 MWh gas-fired power plant in Kosovo for electricity, and for another 250 MWh at the Vlora/Albania power plant.
This is an option for 500 MWh of electricity for Kosovo. While Albin Kurti’s government continues to reject the American LNG offer, the opposition parties have the option for a 500 MWh gas-fired power plant in Kosovo through the proposed gas interconnection with North Macedonia, for USA LNG supplies from Greece, Terminal in Alexandropoulos, respectively.
But, for the expansion of business relations and their boost between Kosovo and the USA, the options are numerous, even for just 250 MWh, and even more for 500 MWh and they are not necessarily limited, and in these combinations the subsequent option for Hydrogen can also be included, so again together with American companies.
This is a matter of honest talks between the two sides. But the current government of Kosovo does not seem to have a sincere approach.
The reasons remain unknown, no matter how much its representatives are misleading the public and the USA itself with other supposed alternatives, such as ‘coal gasification’, an idea that Kurti’s LVV party has it in its election program since last year, but which is dangerous for the environment and nature in Kosovo with completely unpredictable and unstable business results.
The benefits of the USA LNG compromise, or “follow the money 2”
Achieving an agreement with the USA on LNG would have a positive effect not only on economic aspects, with additional electricity capacities for domestic needs and exports when not needed for the domestic market, but it would also have a political easing effect in the face of EU pressures for the dangerous ‘Association’ for Kosovo’s future.
In other words, Kosovo needs NOW to deepen its business with the USA, to remove the future pressure from Washington, the post-Trump government, to establish the ‘association’.
Serbia’s Lithium
The EU’s extreme pressures on Kosovo for the ‘Association’ are already clear. The EU has an extraordinary need for lithium. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has promised the lithium business to Germany, France and Italy, the three main EU automotive industries. He has even signed an MoU for it with the EU.
But Vučić and the EU are in big trouble with hoped lithium massive business, because the opposition, the students, namely 62% of the population in Serbia, according to the polls, are against the extraction of lithium in Loznica, due to the problems it would cause for the environment, nature, soil, and air of that area.
The EU, and the governments of Germany, France, and Italy are still supporting Vučić, the man who promised lithium to the automotive industries of these three countries for the very same reason of lithium business.
Elections in Serbia, Lithium, and the dangerous ‘Association’ for Kosovo
Therefore, the EU, and the governments of these three countries have not yet been heard or seen to be in support of the protesting students for 18 months or the opposition.
All three are afraid that Vučić will lose the elections, and those who are against the extraction and processing of lithium in Serbia will come to power.
Polls in Serbia say that if the Student List and the opposition run together in expected early elections, they will win, and Vučić and his SNS party will be toppled from power.
This possible change in Serbia has an advantage in the best interest of Kosovo, but not necessarily.
First, if students and the opposition remain loyal to their stance against lithium extraction, then the EU’s pressure on Kosovo to establish the ‘Association’ would gradually fade, because I do not see why the EU would insist on doing Serbia a favour with an ‘Association’ in Kosovo, when the EU’s most important business for its automotive industry and beyond with Serbian lithium would fail.
But until then, and without waiting further, Kosovo would have to enter into contractual relations for purchase and use of American LNG.
Even with the change of power in Serbia, the EU will not easily give up on Serbian lithium, and according to tradition in politics, Germany, France and Italy will begin to build relationships and entice the future government in Serbia with an ‘Association’ in Kosovo, and with the unblocking of EU accession negotiations, in the hope of implementing the agreement they have with Serbia on Lithium.
Possible change of position in Serbia on lithium?!
Second, if the EU strategy were to succeed against the future government in Serbia, Kosovo would again be in trouble with pressure from the EU over ‘association’ for Serb minority and after the November 2028 elections, also and again from the Democratic government in the USA, so the situation would return to the pressure of the Biden government area in detriment of Kosovo.
The option of compromise between the EU and the future government in Serbia on lithium would be harmful for Kosovo normalcy.
In this scenario, the future government in Serbia would require some minor change, or reformulation of the 2023 agreement with Kosovo, or even the statute of the association in order to be able to sell it as a victory to the local public, always without changing the Serbian constitution over Kosovo.
After this, and in the meantime, the EU would start opening and closing negotiation chapters in the EU membership talks with Serbia, hoping that it would be able to convince the future government in Serbia to fulfill Albin Kurti’s 3 conditions: namely the signing of the agreement, the handover of Milan Radojčić – the leader of gunmen which attacked Kosovo police in 2023 – and the withdrawal of Ana Brnabić’s letter to the EU, for the implementation of the agreement, i.e. the establishment of the ‘association’.
This scenario would put Kurti in a complicated position, and he would be in a situation losing his arguments for delaying formation of the ‘association’ since his conditions would be met.
In such a possible situation, Kosovo would have to hope that the future new government in Serbia, composed of students and the current opposition, would remain loyal to its current stance against lithium mining, because the failure of the EU project with Serbia’s lithium would remove the pressure from the EU and the USA on Kosovo to establish the ‘association’ sought by both powers and Serbia. Not immediately, but gradually.
REFERENDUM on ‘association’
Regardless of what will happen in the upcoming elections in Serbia, whether there will be a change of power or not, whether there will be a lithium business between the EU and Serbia or not, Kosovo has strong “weapons” to use: the LNG business with the USA, regardless of who is in power in Washington, and the REFERENDUM on the association just as much.
Even if Vučić and his SNS continue to be in power, Kosovo should not wait and act.
It must act to thicken the business with the USA for LNG, and in the meantime, for the ‘association’ Kosovo must use the most democratic and legitimate ‘weapon’ to give to the ‘association’ an answer: the REFERENDUM.
Let the people decide. And the 2024 IRI (Republican International Institute) opinion survey says that 81% of the Kosovo population is against the establishment of the ‘association’ requested by the EU, the USA and Serbia.
LNG, Green Hydrogen and Natural Hydrogen
But until then, and in the meantime, Kosovo should deepen business relations with the US, not only through LNG, but also through various options together with American and Albania government and companies for the production of Green Hydrogen on the Albanian coast.
Albania also has Natural Hydrogen resource in the Bulqiza mine, for which Kosovo and Albania would also have to co-invest to determine its quantity, to be find out whether or not the same reserves have business and economic prospects.
During the Biden government, several American companies had begun to prepare for the production of hydrogen, to be able to transport to for the European market.
Albania and Kosovo should look at the possibilities with American companies for co-investment so that Green Hydrogen through the electrolysis method can be produced in Albania for the European and regional market. Natural Hydrogen in Albania is the second step that should be considered in parallel.
In the contrary, if Kosovo under this current government refuses to enter the LNG business with the USA, I do not see any sound reason why American governments should want to help Kosovo continuously.
In this context, I do not see any reason why the USA should give Kosovo $202 million for BESS batteries, or any other free financial assistance, when Kosovo has $200 million of its own for the road and tunnel from Prizren to Tetovo in North Macedonia.
Kosovo governments need to change their approach in order to be able to deserve future USA financial assistance, before its representatives wake up in the morning and learn that Washington has changed its approach towards Kosovo, which for me personally would not be a surprise or strange at all, considering the strange approach of the current government.
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(The author is the founder of the Western Balkans – EU and Energy news agency dtt-net.com and Brussels-based journalist)
