By Daniel Serwer, @DanielSerwer ,
Washington, 30 October 2025, dtt-net.com / peacefare.net – It’s hard to get too excited about anything in the Western Balkans these days. But the Trump Administration lifting sanctions on Milorad Dodik and his cronies merits comment.
This move is apparently in exchange for Dodik stepping down from the presidency of Republika Srpska (RS). His conviction in a Bosnian court required that he do that.
This unprincipled transaction will do no good in the Western Balkans. The best I can say is that the US can reimpose the sanctions if Dodik gets out of line. But yielding to intense lobbying and contributions to Republican campaign coffers is not making America great. It is making Trump rich and America small.
The backstory
Dodik has campaigned against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina for almost two decades. He threatens secession and advocates the “Serbian world” (aka Greater Serbia), including the Serb-controlled 49% of Bosnia. He has trained and equipped paramilitaries and police and defied Bosnia law repeatedly while serving in official positions.
The former RS President finally got his comeuppance in February. He was convicted of defying orders of the High Representative. He is an international official charged with ensuring implementation of the Dayton peace agreements that ended the 1992-95 Bosnian war.
Dodik has spent many years and many millions lobbying in Washington. No doubt that has included big charitable and political contributions, not from him directly. The Trump Administration has made it clear its decisions are for sale. We shouldn’t be surprised when someone walks away with one they wanted.
What else?
Trump is notoriously transactional, but just as notoriously a bad negotiator. I would like to know if the Administration got anything more than Dodik stepping down. Did he promise to shut up about secession and the Serbian world? Did all his cronies pledge to stop milking RS finances? I wouldn’t trust anything they say. But if you are going to relieve them and their ill-gotten gains from sanctions you should get something in return.
The State Department is claiming this will relieve the crisis in Bosnia. What crisis? At last Bosnia was on getting rid of someone who created most of the crises of the past two decades. Dodik’s conviction was not a crisis. It was justice.
Of a piece
Trump’s record is clear. He has repeatedly pardoned American criminals and opposed the Brazilian court that convicted former President Bolsonaro. Lifting sanctions on Dodik is of a piece with those decisions.
Let’s hope it stops there. There are lots more Balkan criminals looking for favors from Trump. And if this decision betokens a realignment to support unbridled Serb nationalism, the region is in for a rough ride.
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Daniel Serwer is a Professor of the Practice of Conflict Management as well as director of the Conflict Management and American Foreign Policy Programs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
This opinion was first published at peacefare.net website.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of dtt-net.com.
