By Nicasia Picciano, PhD, @NicasiaPi ,
27 October 2024, dtt-net.com – The recent worrying escalation in the Middle East is a reminder of how peace is fragile and cannot be taken for granted. Also, it is a proof that frozen conflicts if not solved, but contained only, may jeopardize peace with unprecedented consequences both regionally and globally. Additionally, it raises the question about the plausibility of achieving a long-lasting peace in externally-sponsored states.
Kosovo and Israel share a common path in striving for consolidating their survival as independent states. Both are the product of a sophisticated international design, providing shelter to persecuted populations, with the firm belief that there was no other option.
Kosovo was de facto granted the basis for a future independence under UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999). This foresaw an international supervised independence over the former province of Serbia pending a final settlement. Yet, the then international community was gaining time only. Its real target was to create the basis for a new state. The reasoning behind this move was that there could not have been a return under Serbia.
In 2003 the then SRSG, Michael Steiner, proclaimed its “Standards before Status” policy. In short, reliable institutions were to precede any discussion about the final status for Kosovo. One year later, on 17-18 March 2004, violence erupted in the country, leaving hundreds wounded and at least 14 people dead. In the media information was circulating about three Kosovo Albanian boys being drowned after being chased into the Ibar River by a group of Kosovo Serbs. This episode urged to think about a final status settlement as soon as possible. Under these circumstances the former Finnish diplomat Martti Ahtisaari was given the challenging task of drafting the path to a final status. His plan bearing its name, Ahtisaari Plan, was endorsed by Kosovo’s Constitution, entered into force on 15 June 2008. On 17 February of the same year Kosovo declared unilaterally its independence. In its advisory opinion of 22 July 2010 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) considered the unilateral declaration of independence not being in violation with international law. Fourteen years later Kosovo is now recognized by 119 states and its progressing in various endeavours (i.e. fight against corruption, rule of law, etc.), while undertaking key reforms with a view to joining the EU. Despite this, Serbia continues to intermingle into its internal affairs and it de facto controls the northern part of the country. Over the years there have been various incidents in the north with the full support of Belgrade, whose main purpose is to destabilize the country. The recent one taking place on 24 September 2023 saw an armed gang attacking Kosovo police officers in Banjska/Banjskë, Zvečan municipality, in the north of Kosovo leaving one police officer dead and two injured. Vučić has been blamed for the attack with the Kosovo police finding 30 heavily-armed Serbs (with weapons worth 5 million euros) seizing an Orthodox monastery.
Like Kosovo-Albanians being suppressed and persecuted by Milošević, Jews had been the victims of a horrendous pogrom under Nazi Germany, when approximately 6 million Jews were exterminated. In fact, they were discriminated much before Hitler. In the XIX century they witnessed persecution, legal restrictions and widespread pogroms. Zionism, the return to the land of Zion, emerged in the late XIX century in Central and Eastern Europe as a national revival movement aiming to re-establish a Jewish polity in the land of Israel. As a result of this, waves of Jewish migrations to Ottoman-controlled Palestine followed. Theodor Herzl, who is looked at as the father of political Zionism, offered his vision of a future Jewish state in his book Der Judenstaat (1896).
In the meantime, antisemitism against the Jews grew and many fled to the USA. The epilogue was reached under Nazi Germany, when high numbers of Jews immigrated to Palestine. On 14 May 1948 the State of Israel was created.
From that moment on Israel has been fighting for its own survival, surrounded by enemy countries. And the most atrocious pogrom since World War II occurred on 7th October 2023, when Hamas killed about 1,189 people, including 815 civilians, wounding 7,500 and taking 251 hostage.
Considered as a terrorist organization, Hamas was founded in 1987 when it fought in the occupied territories by the Israeli army during the first Intifada. It is the branch of the Muslim Palestinian Brothers targeting the destruction of the state of Israel and its replacement by an Islamic Palestinian State. It carries out a religious, ideological indoctrination of children with one intention in mind: to destroy Israel.
Hamas has been supported by Russia as Serbia’s interminglement in the north of Kosovo has been continuously backed by Moscow.
From autumn of last year (7 October 2023), since Hamas’s attack on Israel, the situation has been escalating further and things seem to get worst after the recent killing, 27 September 2024, by Israel of the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and the counteroffensive with 180 missiles launched by Teheran attacking Israel.
Hezbollah is a terrorist army, created in 1982, following the Israeli invasion during the Lebanese civil war. In 2000 Israeli military troops left Lebanon and Hezbollah kept its structures there. Today, it is a non-state institution with the highest number of arms worldwide thanks to the financial and military support of Iran. In South Lebanon it de facto substitutes the state (as Serbia does in the north of Kosovo), by opening schools, building hospitals and providing for various services to the local population. It is part of the Lebanese government. It is also a member in the Lebanese Parliament and no decision can be taken without considering Hezbollah’s position.
Following the recent Iran’s response with 180 missiles, Israel started a soil invasion in the south of Lebanon. And a vicious circle of offensive and counteroffensive is setting the basis for an unstoppable dynamic with unpredictable consequences. The risk is of a total war. There have been months and weeks of attacks and losses from both sides.
As for Netanyahu, he does not seem to be ready to stop until his goal is met: to demolish the maximum of Hezbollah’s arsenal in the south of Lebanon and of weakening Iran. Israel Prime Minister is obsessed with security and he will do everything to guarantee the safety of Israel and its citizens. The killing on 16 October in the Tel al-Sultan refugee camp in Rafah by Israel of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader and the mastermind of the 7 October 2023 progrom, is a demonstration of this, as it is that of his successor, Hashem Safieddine who apparently died at the beginning of October.
Yet, is Hamas going to capitulate or fight even harder in the region?
Also, the dreadful spiral of violence has shown that the old dictum of carrying out wars under international law, meaning that civilians are to be taken out of the conflict, is a myth only. And, the rhetoric of Netanyahu of pointing solely to specific targets is unacceptable. In fact, whether Israel’s attacks were intended to hit Hamas and Hezbollah, unnumbered civilians have been killed by Israel both in Gaza (42, 000 from last year) and Lebanon (more than 2.100) and hundreds of thousands displaced.
Certainly, the 7th of October pogrom is a response to years of marginalization of the Palestinian population living in Gaza, as well as the discrimination of the Palestinians in the West Bank. The latter occupation by Israel, since 1967, has been considered illegal under international law by the International Court of Justice in its 2024 advisory opinion.
The current circle of violence and retaliation is likely to lead to unprecedented and uncontrollable consequences for the region. And nobody knows when it will stop. As for now Netanyahu does not have a strategy, if not killing all top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders and withering away Tehran. But for how long? Nobody knows at the moment. The question is whether what happened on 7th October was predictable. Surely, it was. Undeniably, the right of Israel to exist is undebatable, as it is the right to self-determination of the Palestinians.The two-state solutions supported by the then Israel Prime Minister Rabin was buried following his death, when he was killed in November 1995 by a Jewish extremist. So, every hope for the peace process died.
This was the biggest mistake for a credible peace process in the Middle East. Years of anger and humiliation have been productively used by Hamas and Hezbollah to show that they are still there to defend Palestinians’ rights.
Can externally-sponsored states, pushed by the moral duty of protecting the more vulnerable ones, survive surrounded by religious fanaticism, political manipulation and terrorist groups?
There are no easy answers to complex issues where regional dynamics, politics and manipulated religion are the perfect mix for explosive developments. Yet, internationally-designed states can exist if there is a serious plan to stabilization and not palliative actions accompanied by deadly neglecting.
As for Kosovo, the country has certainly made considerable steps ahead in terms of statehood. But the stable house has not been completely built yet. Certainly, nobody can deny Kosovo being an independent state progressing in various endeavours (i.e., rule of law, fight against corruption and organized crimes, minority rights etc.). At the same time the EU should channel all its efforts to guarantee the unity of the country, by keeping in mind that there must not be a second Cyprus.
With a look at Israel the international community has less committed itself with a clear strategy for the entire Middle East. And evidence tells us that under the current circumstances the country can only survive by continuously defending itself with huge military expenditures and unnumbered human losses. Is this the price we all want to pay?
Creation of a externally-sponsored Palestinian state is the solution to end a dreadful spiral of violence. It must be supported by the USA and Europe with no hesitation. Also, the UN Security Council must quickly issue a resolution setting the basis for the deployment of a UN mission to Gaza overseeing a cease-fire and providing a framework for provisional institutions of self-government (PISG), as it has been the case for Kosovo under UNSC Res. 1244.
If dormant up to now the international community should wake up and undertake the following actions immediately: show solidarity with both populations’ victims, by hanging flags of both Israel and Palestine in front of official buildings. This is necessary for undermining any discriminatory move and avoiding hypocritical actions; take the momentum to clearly define its new strategy for the Middle East and draft an action and implementation plan for a two-state solution. Particularly, a. it should design an action plan for de-escalation (release of the hostages, cease-fire and reconstruction); b. it should reinforce UNIFIL pursuant to UNSC resolution 1701; c. it should foresee a transitory and definite phase leading to a two-state solution.
There should be no impunity against terrorists and revanchist fanaticism-nurtured views. These should be fought with all means. At the same time a clear strategy is urged. What’s more, a plan for a two-state solution must be drafted as soon as possible. Like Maarti Ahtisaari for Kosovo, a personality distinguishing himself/herself in the field of peace- and state-building must be appointed by the UN to work on the plan with the local counterpart.
Firmness and decisiveness must prevail over indecision and hesitation. The current tremendous situation in the Middle East can open a window of opportunity unlocking potentials to reshape the balance in the region. Yet, a firm commitment by all sides abiding by an internationally supervised action and implementation plan is needed. Also, targeted sanctions must be imposed if failing to meet the commitments.
Kosovo proved to be a success story. Israel and Palestine can too, via the establishment of a two-state solution and the deepening of economic cooperation between the two communities and in the region. Waiting sine die is counterproductive and will lead to further unnumbered human losses. The truth is that there are no human wars.
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Nicasia Picciano holds a Phd on European Union state-building in Kosovo from the University of Flensburg, Germany. She is the author of the book the European Union State-Building in Kosovo. Challenges and Lessons Learned: An Assessment of EULEX, Dr. Kovač, Hamburg. She has previously worked as a researcher for Kosovo Foundation for Open Society, Prishtina, Group for Legal and Political Studies, Prishtina and Balkans Policy Research Group, Prishtina. Currently, she covers the Western Balkans for Sbunker (Prishtina) and Le Courrier des Balkans (Paris). Her research interests span from peace- and state-building, reconciliation and ethnic conflict, cultural tourism, green energy transition, the Berlin Process and the Connectivity Agenda in Kosovo and the Western Balkans.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of dtt-net.com
