“While I agree that Joe Biden made stupid decisions, Donald Trump did not prevent war [between Serbia and Kosovo] in his first term. And any effort he makes now could cause even more damage”
By Daniel Serwer, @DanielSerwer ,
Washington, 17 June 2025, dtt-net.com / peacefare.net – The Western Balkans are aflutter because President Donald Trump mentioned the region. He said in his social media platform:
This is thin gruel, even by Trump’s MAGAte standards. While I agree that Joe Biden made stupid decisions, Donald Trump did not prevent war in his first term. And any effort he makes now could cause even more damage.
What Trump will try
I say this because of Trump’s inclination towards partition of Kosovo. His Balkan whisperer, Ric Grenell, thinks that is a great idea. He’ll offer it up as an exchange of territory. Serb-majority northern Kosovo would go to Serbia and the Albanian-majority municipalities of southern Serbia would go to Kosovo. Sounds neat, especially if you are an ethnic nationalist. Trump and Grenell are committed ethnic nationalists of the white supremacist variety.
But Serbia won’t agree to partition. It prefers to hold onto all of southern Serbia, where a main road to Thessaloniki and the Mediterranean runs. That’s why Belgrade is doing its best to move the Albanians out. So this is a classic bait and switch: offer exchange, get partition. Prime Minister Kurti, or his successor, would do best not to allow any discussion of exchange on the agenda.
What Serbia and Kosovo should try to do
Neither Serbia nor Kosovo really needs help from the likes of Ric Grenell or Donald Trump. The dialogue in recent years has sought to normalize relations between them without mutual recognition. That has failed. The entire political dialogue since 2013 has produced little to nothing.
The technical dialogue that preceded that effort, and has continued sotto voce, has produced a great deal more. While everyone pooh-poohed it at the time, a country dialing code for Kosovo, mutual recognition of documents, sorting out electrical supplies and payments, integrated border controls–these are things that make a real difference to real people. At this point, Belgrade and Pristina know each other well enough to proceed on technical issues even in the absence of EU mediation. If the political will exists, they should do it.
EU issues
At the same time, Belgrade and Kosovo both have their own issues with the EU.
Belgrade is stalled in the accession process. It needs to figure out with Brussels how to get restarted. That should include as a priority implementing the agreement and its implementation annex supposedly reached in 2023. President Vucic refused to sign, but the EU is writing the commitments into the accession process. He’d do well to quietly implement.
Kosovo is still suffering under unjustified EU sanctions for actions no one really remembers. But they helped to stabilize the situation in the north and demonstrated the professionalism of Pristina’s security forces in the face of Belgrade’s concerted destabilization efforts. Brussels has begun the process of easing the sanctions. It should finish as soon as possible.
How about the US?
Even a fully qualified US President would have many things to think about right now before getting to the Balkans. An addled President Trump can do little more than claim credit for things he hasn’t done and promise more. But he is failing everywhere: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, and trade are all a mess. His incoherence is not healthy. My advice to those who think they need American help is this: don’t ask. Handle it yourselves.
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Daniel Serwer is a Professor of the Practice of Conflict Management as well as director of the Conflict Management and American Foreign Policy Programs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
This opinion was first published at peacefare.net website.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of dtt-net.com.
