By Daniel Serwer, @DanielSerwer ,
Budva, 31 May 2026, dtt-net.com / peacefare.net – Three decades ago, this country was a backwater of Milosevic-ruled former Yugoslavia, struggling to make ends meet with cigarette smuggling and other dubious trade.
I also remember hearing Milo Djukanovic speak in Washington around 1996 or so. He said he would bring Montenegro westward, towards Europe and democracy. The Americans doubted he would do it, or that he would be allowed to do it. He was, in my view, courageous and true to his word.
When I talked with him here a decade ago, I congratulated him on the progress he had made, but I also pointed out that Montenegro lacked two vital pillars of democracy: a loyal opposition capable of governing and focused on EU membership. And an independent judiciary.
Montenegro’s progress
Then in 2023 Montenegrins proved me wrong, or at least I hope they did, on the first point. President Djukanovic, to his enormous credit, presided over a peaceful electoral alternation in power. Let it not be the last one.
The second point is still outstanding in my view. And you can be sure the capacity of the judiciary to follow the law wherever it leads will be an important factor in the EU accession process.
Whatever complaints you may have about your current government, it deserves credit for continuing to open the remaining chapters of the acquis communautaire and closing at least eight of fourteen closed so far, Google tells me.
Montenegro is now leading the regatta for EU membership. That’s not something I had on my bingo card three decades ago! Nor did I anticipate it 10 years ago.
But it is not only Montenegro that has changed. It is also the rest of the Balkans, Europe, and the United States.
EU accession is not only a meritocratic process. It is also a political one requiring 27 Member States to satisfy their own electorates that the idea is a good one.
You are in the lead but will be navigating during this last lap to EU membership in treacherous waters.
The Balkans context
Let me start with the Balkans. Here I see Serbia as the main issue.
Belgrade has abandoned its European Union ambition. It not only lags in closing chapters of the acquis, but it also no longer meets the Copenhagen criteria.
The Serbian media is not free, its judiciary is not independent, and its government runs elections that no longer meet the criteria of free and fair, if ever they did.
Belgrade has returned to trying to create what it calls the Serbian World, which is Greater Serbia in a more ambiguous guise. It challenges the statehood and sovereignty of both Bosnia and Kosovo, if not also of Montenegro.
Serbia’s corrupt business with China and intelligence and military ties to Russia are the clear signals that Belgrade is no longer serious about EU membership.
Its accession process has slowed to a crawl while the EU Commission is getting bolder about its criticism.
I expect Serbia to lean hard against Montenegro’s impending accession to the EU, as it did also against Montenegro joining NATO. No one should forget the foiled assassination attempt on then Prime Minister Djukanovic’s life in 2016.
Belgrade will resist Podgorica entering the EU not only because that is what Putin wants, but also because a prosperous, free and democratic Montenegro with secure borders will be a sharp contrast with increasingly closed, autocratic, and irredentist Serbia.
Europe will not be whole and free anytime soon. Belgrade and Banja Luka are determined to remain tied to Russia. There are some people in Montenegro who would like Podgorica to follow that example.
Vucic is hoping for changed geopolitical circumstances that will enable him to partition Bosnia and Kosovo. Montenegro he would like to swallow whole.
Some think Vucic’s days are numbered, due to the massive demonstrations against him. But that is not guaranteed. Nor is it guaranteed that his successor won’t be more nationalistic and even less oriented towards Europe.
Until Serbs change their minds and their stripes, Europe will continue to be divided. The line of division will not go around but rather through the Balkans.
The European Union challenges
The European Union will complicate your challenges. It should welcome Montenegro with open arms, but of course that is not what happens in the final stages of EU accession.
Some in the EU are hesitant about enlargement. That is a perennial problem. It can be solved with determination and smart diplomacy.
The biggest threat a prospective member like Montenegro poses within the EU arises from its own veto on issues not subject to a qualified majority. I hope Montenegro will understand if qualified majority voting is extended to foreign policy issues, and if its veto rights until then are limited. Recent experience with Hungary suggests that is necessary.
In addition, one or more of the 27 member states will have hesitations, issues, or demands specific to Montenegro.
You know better than I do from which direction these challenges come, but I would regard them as inevitable.
Every new accession requires resolution of longstanding conflicts with at least one neighboring member state. You wouldn’t want to be a member of a club that admits members with which you have unresolved problems.
I won’t delve into your issues with Croatia, which seem soluble to me, with good will and determination. Keeping your focus on the future will help to resolve problems that derive from the past. I doubt any of the issues are worth delaying accession, but that is for you to decide.
The American conundrum
The biggest problem Montenegro faces is the global context in which EU accession will occur. And the biggest problem in that context is my own country, the United States.
You and I have lived with an America since the 1960s that believed in liberal democracy and was willing to spread it to other countries. It is difficult for us to understand how new and unusual that version of America was.
It was gestated in World War II and born in the early Cold War years. We had fought Fascist authoritarianism and weren’t going to yield to Communist authoritarianism.
The inconsistency then between American ideals and practice was glaring and led to dramatic reforms.
We believed then, and I still believe, that all people are created equal. That is the fundamental notion in the Declaration of Independence, whose 250th birthday we will celebrate in July.
But that is not the only founding idea for America. Our constitution enshrined rich white men as the only people allowed to vote. And it gave the men they elected power based on counting slaves as 3/5 of a person, even though slaves couldn’t vote. It also gave more power to less populated states than their population would justify, by giving each state two senators.
We fought a civil war over slavery. The southern states, the same states that give Donald Trump a large measure of approval, did not think all men were created equal. They perpetuated inequality after the civil war through the Jim Crow period, which not only segregated Black people but also denied them the right to vote.
In the period between the two world wars, we saw a resurgence of anti-immigration and anti-Black activism, culminating in the first America Firsters—that is what they called themselves. They opposed American entry into the second World War.
They were isolationists sympathetic to the Fascists, especially Mussolini but also Hitler. They, like Trump, were not liberal democrats. Many were white supremacists, as are many MAGA people.
My point is this: what you are seeing in America today is not new. It is a racist, isolationist resurgence, mainly constituted by males who resent the dilution of their power that women’s liberation and civil rights for minorities and gay people have wrought.
The Trump Administration is itself ethnonationalist. It is a white supremacist Administration with no qualms about ethnic nationalism.
It is not surprising that the State Department paper on the Western Balkans published last week fails to come to terms with the dangers Serbian irredentism and other forms of ethnic nationalism pose throughout the Balkans.
Moreover, it advocates local leadership in the Balkans.
The risks of that approach are all too evident in the dealmaking the White House has pursued with Milorad Dodik. Local leadership can lead in bad directions.
Dodik may mouth neutrality on NATO admission for Bosnia, but that is easy: it isn’t going to happen anytime soon, due largely to obstacles he put in the way.
It may be too much to expect this Administration to stand up against ethnic nationalism and for liberal democracy, but I do hope the professionals left in the State Department will warn the Administration against partnering in the future with racists and Russian agents.
Trump and his power
Despite his resurgence on election day, President Trump is now an astoundingly unpopular president. He is under water in approval on all the main issues: the economy, immigration, health care, tariffs, the war with Iran, the Ukraine war, and the NATO Alliance.
But he is wielding mostly uncontested power because the Congress and the Supreme Court are not only in Republican hands but in Trump’s hands. He named three of the Republican Supreme Court justices in his first term.
All six Republican nominees have mostly remained loyal to the Republican political agenda, which includes ending the voting rights finally gained in the 1960s.
Trump has used the primaries, in which mainly party loyalists vote, to gain control over virtually every Republican member of both the House and Senate. It is fear of Trump-endorsed primary competitors that keeps the Republican members in Trump’s camp.
In a perverse way, we are victims of our own democratic procedures. The primary system devised to undo party boss power has evolved into a system that restores party boss power.
The Supreme Court is a different issue: some of the Republican Justices have pretty much abandoned any pretense of ruling based on the facts and the law.
There is ample evidence that more than one is accepting gifts from rich tycoons that no judge should even think about accepting.
Especially when it comes to the power of the presidency, the Republican justices are openly supporting Trump’s effort to enhance presidential power. They would not be ruling as they do if a Democrat were in the White House.
What this Trump’s America means for Montenegro
President Trump’s hostility to NATO and the EU presents serious problems for Montenegro.
The Article 5 commitment to mutual defense has always been one that required confirmation in particular circumstances. But now those circumstances include obvious reluctance of NATO’s leading power to defend Europe.
Trump’s abandonment of support for Ukraine and his catering to Russian President Putin’s whims are clear signs that America, at least for now, cannot be relied upon to defend Europe.
That doesn’t mean the Alliance is worthless. Article 5 has only been activated once, after 9/11 for the defense of America. But its deterrent effect is much diminished.
Now Alliance membership is more important for its planning, its military exercises, and the interoperability it encourages.
I hope Montenegro can take full advantage of those Alliance activities.
If Trump forces partition of Ukraine, which he has tried repeatedly to do, all bets against partition in the Balkans are off. Russia and Serbia will double down not only on the Serbian world, but on formal partition of Bosnia and Kosovo.
Montenegro’s NATO membership will be vital if that happens, because it will discourage Serbian aggression.
Trump likes the EU even less than NATO. His America will not support Montenegro’s membership in the European Union.
The EU membership you have worked so hard to qualify for may even put you at risk of tariffs and other trade measures that Trump has been imposing, ignoring existing trade agreements.
Why?
Today’s world presents other heightened risks. The American standoff with Iran looks as if it could last months.
Even if it ends tomorrow, sharply increased energy and fertilizer prices will hit Europe hard, spreading to food, transportation, manufacturing, and other sectors. The global economy could well head into recession before the mutual embargoes are ended.
You may well ask, why is this happening? Why has America gone to war without consulting its Allies? Why is the United States abandoning the world’s most successful Alliance? Why is Washington targeting Brussels? And why is Trump aligning with Putin?
On that last question, I confess I have too many answers, but I don’t know which one is correct. I’ve heard explanations based on money, personality, blackmail, ideology, and geopolitics. Maybe all five are at play.
But whatever the right answer, there is no reason to believe the situation will change until Trump is out of office. A Democratic victory in November’s Congressional elections, which is possible but not certain, would make some difference in restraining the President’s worst instincts and behavior, but the man will remain a Putin camp follower.
In foreign policy, the President has virtually unlimited power. And Trump is a man who trusts his own bad instincts more than experts.
That means he will continue to undermine NATO and help Russia. The decision to withdraw some troops from Germany fits with this objective.
Trump is a believer in might makes right. That is what took him to war against Iran, twice. He cannot understand a country that prides itself on sovereignty and independence, no matter the force exerted against it. Nor can he accept the fact that Iran has now gained control of the strait of Hormuz, a strategic loss not only for the US but also for the Gulf Arabs, Europe, and the rest of the world.
As for Washington’s attitude toward Brussels, I think it clear that Trump and the Republicans generally resent Europe’s success, see Europe as an economic competitor, and want to weaken it.
They relish Brexit because it weakened both Britain and the EU. They won’t welcome Montenegro’s EU accession.
How should Europe respond?
This all suggests you will be joining the right team when you become an EU member. But Europe needs to get better at playing the geopolitical game that Trump has imposed on the world.
The more NATO’s European members can begin to elaborate plans to defend themselves, the better. I can only welcome the decision of Slovenia, Croatia, and Albania to strengthen their mutual defenses. I might even suggest that Montenegro join them, knowing however how unwelcome that suggestion will be in some quarters.
European economic growth is also important. It was already lagging before the Iran war, which is likely to slow growth further and accelerate inflation.
There is little Montenegro can do about that, other than brace itself for what could be an impending recession. And fix its own budget problems.
Business cycles are inevitable in capitalist economies. You’ll need cut back and hold on for the next recovery.
Montenegro has things the world will want in the future. Renewable energy will be vital in a world of artificial intelligence and uncertain supplies of oil and natural gas.
Not to mention your successful tourism industry, all too evident here in Budva.
Conclusions
A decade ago, the Montenegrin Journal of Social Sciences reminds me that I said that Montenegro was a Balkans success story because you avoided war when other multiethnic societies descended into the maelstrom, you chose to distance yourselves from a much larger and more powerful Serbia under Milosevic, you decided on independence peacefully and democratically, you have qualified for NATO membership and begun to negotiate EU accession.
I would add now that you have continued on the difficult road to EU accession faster than any of the competitors, you have alternated parties in power, you joined NATO, and you have deployed Montenegrin troops in Afghanistan, Latvia, Liberia, and Somalia.
Ten years ago, I hoped you would also be an EU member by now, about which I was wrong. But I am going to repeat that hope, not for 10 years from now but for 4, which requires that you be fully qualified in two. And I’ll repeat also what that should mean:
Your politics will be competitive, your media free, your justice system independent and your civil service professional. You will not be immune to scandal, but your institutions will handle it with due process. Your society will remain stable, open and dynamic.
And, needless to say, I hope you will again have an American partner that has renewed its commitment to the Alliance, to its competitive friendship with the European Union, and to liberal democracy both at home and abroad.
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Daniel Serwer is a Professor of the Practice of Conflict Management as well as director of the Conflict Management and American Foreign Policy Programs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
This text is his speech at Montenegrin Political Science Association held in Budva last week, and was published at his peacefare.net website.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of dtt-net.com.
